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Correction: °ÄÃÅÁùºÏ²Ê×ÊÁÏ¿â Davis Strawberries and Methyl Bromide Release Editors: Resending with two corrections on methyl bromide use in paragraph 8. Also provides link to information on research into methyl bromide alternatives funded by the °ÄÃÅÁùºÏ²Ê×ÊÁÏ¿â Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program in last paragraph. Strawberry Production May Drop 20 Percent Without Methyl Bromide California's strawberry industry, which produces most of the nation's strawberries, will likely suffer a 20 percent drop in production due to the phaseout of the agricultural pesticide methyl bromide, report °ÄÃÅÁùºÏ²Ê×ÊÁÏ¿â Davis agricultural economists. Methyl bromide use is being eliminated under an international agreement because studies have shown that the pesticide contributes to the destruction of the Earth's ozone layer. Agriculturists have just a few years to develop alternatives that are both scientifically and economically viable. This year, use of methyl bromide in the United States must be cut to half the 1991 levels, and it will be prohibited by 2005, when all but critical agricultural uses will be forbidden. Developing countries must follow suit by 2015. Until now, it has been unclear exactly how the ban on methyl bromide will economically impact the strawberry industry, particularly in California, where 83 percent of the nation's strawberries for fresh and frozen sale are grown. "The loss of methyl bromide will have a significant impact on California agriculture and more than 25,000 people employed in its strawberry industry," said Colin Carter, professor and chair of the °ÄÃÅÁùºÏ²Ê×ÊÁÏ¿â Davis agricultural and resource economics department. "Such dramatic loss in yield and overall production will translate into lost jobs and displacement of workers. We hope the information from this study will better equip the state and the industry to prepare for these changes." The researchers' findings were recently presented by graduate student Massimiliano De Santis at the Environmental Protection Agency's 2000 Annual International Research Conference on Methyl Bromide Alternatives and Emissions Standards. The phaseout and ultimate ban on methyl bromide grew out of an international treaty known as the Montreal Protocol, begun in the late 1980s and aimed at controlling production and use of ozone-depleting substances. More than 160 nations, including the United States, have signed the protocol. Worldwide, an estimated 109.8 million pounds of methyl bromide are used each year for pre-plant soil fumigation, 13 percent of that for strawberry production. California strawberry growers, who harvest more than 25,000 acres of strawberries each year, apply about 4.6 million pounds of the fumigant to their fields annually. Strawberry growers inject methyl bromide into the soil before they plant in order to reduce weeds and kill most of the insects, worms and microorganisms that might feed on or transmit diseases to the young strawberry plants. Methyl bromide also is used to fumigate crops after they have been harvested. Previous studies suggest that the alternatives to methyl bromide currently registered for use with strawberries are not as effective, and their use would result in a 10 percent to 35 percent decline in per-acre yield of strawberries in California. Effects of the Ban In gauging the likely effect of the methyl bromide ban on the California strawberry industry, Carter and colleagues focused on strawberry producers' total revenues. They studied existing data and conducted interviews with strawberry growers to formulate a projection. They concluded that the methyl bromide ban will: o cause a 20 percent overall reduction in acreage planted to strawberries and per-acre strawberry yield; o result in a 17 percent to 28 percent decline in revenue to the California strawberry industry; and o have the greatest impact on Northern California growers, because their peak production period falls in early summer, when consumers are likely to purchase other readily available fruits if strawberry prices climb significantly due to higher production costs related to the ban. Regulatory Uncertainties The researchers found that several uncertainties at the international level complicate the picture for California strawberry growers. First, methyl bromide use will be allowed in developing countries, including Mexico, for 10 years after it is banned in the United States. This may give a competitive edge to the Mexican strawberry industry. Secondly, there is a regulatory provision that will allow countries to use methyl bromide in specific "critical use" situations if no economically and technically feasible alternatives are available and if the market for a given commodity would be significantly disrupted without use of the pesticide. It is unclear how this will affect the competitiveness of California strawberry growers. And at the state and national level, methyl bromide availability will be governed by market prices during the phaseout period; the pesticide will not be allocated by regulators. Furthermore, the state has its own registration process determined by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation. It is possible that California producers will find themselves competing with growers in other states using methyl bromide alternatives not cleared for use under more stringent California rules. The °ÄÃÅÁùºÏ²Ê×ÊÁÏ¿â Davis study was funded by the California Strawberry Commission and the Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Information on research into alternatives to methyl bromide is available online at http://danr.ucop.edu/news/Jan-June2001/MBalternatives.html. Media contacts: -- Colin Carter, Agricultural and Resource Economics, (530) 752-6054, cacarter@ucdavis.edu -- Massimiliano De Santis, Agricultural and Resource Economics, (530) 752-7721, massi@primal.ucdavis.edu -- Patricia Bailey, News Service, (530) 752-9843, pjbailey@ucdavis.edu